The Same Market Decline Can Feel Very Different in Retirement
When you’re working, a market downturn can certainly be uncomfortable. But if you’re still earning a paycheck and contributing to retirement accounts, you may have time to wait for markets to recover.
Retirement changes that dynamic. Once your portfolio becomes part of your paycheck, you may be withdrawing money while markets are falling. That combination can create a risk many retirees haven’t encountered during their accumulation years: sequence-of-returns risk.
The Direction of the Cash Flow Has Changed
The same portfolio can behave very differently depending on whether money is flowing in or flowing out.
You’re generally putting money in — and a decline may be followed by years of continued contributions.
You’re now taking money out — and withdrawals may continue even while markets are down.
The direction of the cash flow has changed.
It’s Not Only Your Average Return That Matters
Sequence-of-returns risk refers to the possibility that the timing of investment gains and losses can materially affect a retiree who is simultaneously taking withdrawals.
Two retirees could experience similar long-term average returns and still have different outcomes if one experiences significant losses early in retirement while withdrawing money. The order of returns — not just the average — can matter once withdrawals begin.
Same Retirement. Same Withdrawals. Different Timing.
Consider two hypothetical retirees. Both retire at 65, begin with the same hypothetical portfolio, take the same hypothetical withdrawals, and experience the same set of annual returns — only in a different order.
Stronger returns occur earlier
Retiree A
- Early years produce gains while withdrawals begin.
- Withdrawals are taken from a portfolio that has grown, not one that has fallen.
- Later declines occur against a larger remaining balance.
Significant losses occur earlier
Retiree B
- Early declines occur at the same time withdrawals begin.
- Selling assets for income while values are depressed leaves fewer assets invested.
- Later gains apply to a smaller remaining balance, which may make recovery more difficult.
Hypothetical Example: This hypothetical example is provided for educational purposes only and does not represent the performance of any investment, insurance product or retirement strategy. It does not reflect fees, taxes or expenses, and it is not a projection or guarantee of future results.
Selling After a Decline Can Turn a Temporary Market Loss Into a Retirement Problem
When investments decline, selling assets to fund living expenses means fewer assets remain available to participate in a potential recovery. Over time, that can compound the effect of an early downturn.
This doesn’t mean retirees should abandon market investments. Market assets may still play an important long-term role in a retirement strategy.
What Is a Retirement Buffer?
A retirement buffer is a portion of a broader retirement strategy designed to help fund certain spending or income needs without relying entirely on the sale of market-based investments during an unfavorable period.
A buffer is not a market-timing strategy, and it does not attempt to forecast declines. It is an organizational decision about which dollars are expected to fund near-term income and which dollars are intended to stay invested for longer-term goals.
How a Retirement Buffer Is Structured
Conceptually, a buffer sits between what you plan to spend and the assets you intend to leave invested for the longer term.
Retirement Spending Needs
The income you expect to need for essential and discretionary expenses.
Protected / Liquid Income Buffer
Cash, other liquid assets, or protected-income strategies intended to help fund certain near-term needs without direct dependence on short-term market performance.
Longer-Term Market Assets
Assets that remain positioned for longer-term growth, inflation and future needs.
If markets fall
- 1Markets decline.
- 2Certain income and spending needs may continue to be met from protected or liquid sources.
- 3Potentially reducing the immediate need to sell depressed market assets.
A buffer strategy is an approach to structuring retirement income. It does not guarantee investment performance, prevent market losses in market-based assets, or ensure that any particular retirement outcome will be achieved. Any insurance guarantees are subject to the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company.
Different Dollars, Different Time Horizons
One practical way to think about a buffer is to sort retirement dollars by when you expect to use them.
Now
Near-Term / Liquid Money
- Emergency reserves
- Near-term expenses
- Planned purchases
Priority
Accessibility
Next
Income / Protected Money
Potential purpose
Help fund certain retirement-income needs without direct dependence on short-term market performance.
Priority
Predictability / Protection
Later
Longer-Term Growth Money
Potential purpose
Remain positioned for longer-term growth.
Priority
Growth / Inflation / Future Needs
The objective isn’t to eliminate market exposure. It’s to avoid asking every retirement dollar to perform the same job on the same timeline.
An Annuity Can Be One Tool for Building a Retirement Buffer
Depending on the type of contract and the features selected, certain annuities may potentially help create:
- Contractual lifetime income
- Principal protection
- Predictable interest
- Protection from direct market losses, depending upon annuity type
For example, income annuities or annuities with applicable income features may help create dependable retirement cash flow. Fixed or fixed indexed annuities may potentially provide a protected allocation that isn’t directly exposed to market losses, subject to contract terms such as caps, participation rates, spreads and surrender charges.
Why Not Just Protect Everything?
Eliminating market exposure can create its own trade-offs. Even a retiree focused on protection may still need:
- Long-term growth
- Inflation protection
- Liquidity
- Flexibility
- Legacy assets
Protection from volatility is only one retirement objective. Emphasizing it exclusively may reduce the ability to address others.
Related Reading in Annuity Strategies
These two articles explore the balance question in more depth.
Building a Smarter Retirement Allocation: Balancing Income, Protection, Growth and Liquidity
How four jobs — income, protection, growth and liquidity — can work together in one retirement strategy.
Growth or Guaranteed Income? Two Ways Annuities Can Fit Into a Retirement Strategy
Determining what job you need your money to do before choosing an annuity.
Should You Move Money Out of the Market Before Retirement?
Retirement doesn’t automatically mean getting out of the market. Many retirees continue to hold market-based investments for years or decades after they stop working.
Answering that question generally involves reviewing several factors together rather than any single rule of thumb:
- Time horizon for each portion of savings
- Expected spending needs, essential and discretionary
- Guaranteed income already in place, such as Social Security or a pension
- Liquidity requirements and emergency reserves
- Risk tolerance and comfort with fluctuation
- Other assets, including real estate and taxable accounts
- Retirement timeline, including when withdrawals begin
This article does not provide an individualized allocation recommendation. Decisions about how to structure retirement assets should reflect your full financial picture and, where appropriate, guidance from qualified professionals.
Three Questions to Ask Before Retirement
- 01
Question 01
How much of my essential spending is already covered by dependable income?
- 02
Question 02
How much money might I need from my portfolio during the next several years?
- 03
Question 03
If markets fell substantially after I retired, which assets would I use for income?
If the answer to the third question is simply “sell whatever investments I own,” it may be worth thinking more carefully about how your retirement income strategy is structured.
You Don’t Have to Predict the Market to Prepare for Market Volatility
No one knows exactly when the next major market decline will occur or how long a recovery will take. A retirement strategy shouldn’t depend on knowing.
The purpose of a retirement buffer is to consider whether some near-term income and spending needs can be separated from assets intended for longer-term market growth.
For some retirees, cash and other liquid assets may help accomplish part of that job. For others, protected-income strategies or certain annuities may potentially play a role. The right mix depends on the individual.
The goal isn’t to eliminate market risk. It’s to avoid allowing a bad market at the wrong time to dictate your retirement decisions.
Important Information: This article is educational and is not investment, tax or legal advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any product or security. Annuities are insurance products; guarantees are subject to the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Annuity features, costs, limitations and surrender charges vary by contract and state. Market-based investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. A buffer strategy does not guarantee investment performance or any particular retirement outcome. Consider consulting qualified professionals about your specific situation.
Sources
- 1.Annuities — types, features, fees and how they work — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Investor.gov)
- 2.Updated Investor Bulletin: Indexed Annuities — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- 3.Annuities — investor information and risk considerations — FINRA
- 4.Managing retirement income and withdrawal considerations — FINRA
- 5.Taking the Mystery Out of Retirement Planning — U.S. Department of Labor, Employee Benefits Security Administration
Go deeper in the Knowledge Hub
Educational guides that expand on the topics covered in this article.
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